Glencoe D.35 projects drop in enrollment, no cuts in staffing
District 35 Superintendent Cathlene Crawford
Updated: May 20, 2013 4:49PM
GLENCOE — Despite a 9.8 percent projected decline in enrollment over the next seven years, School District 35 will not need to cut teachers, Superintendent Cathlene Crawford said.
Due to several retirements scheduled during the same time period, she said District 35 will be able to offset the reduction in students without reducing faculty.
“Based on the number of retirements we are anticipating, we are in a good spot,” she said. “We do not expect to release or RIF (reduce in force) any staff.”
Enrollment will decline gradually through 2019-20 in District 35, according to a report by John Kasarda, business professor at the University of North Carolina, who provides enrollment projections to New Trier Township every two years.
The district will lose 124 students, bringing enrollment from the current level of 1,268 students to 1,144 students in 2019-20, Kasarda projected.
Kasarda’s projections are based on housing turnover, family migration patterns, birth rates and student transfers, Crawford said. His two-year projections generally have been accurate since Crawford joined the District about 18 years ago, she said.
“Usually, for two years out, he’s pretty good,” she said. “I suspect he’s going to be close. Two years from now, we’ll have a better idea if the long-term projections are going to hold.”
Eventually, a projected drop in new kindergarten students will stabilize, Crawford said. Over the next seven years, an average of 158 students will graduate from eighth grade, while only 100-110 kindergartners will enroll each year, she said.
“That’s where the change is coming in just about all elementary districts in the township,” Crawford said.
Kasarda projected enrollments will drop at all township elementary schools over the next 10 years, while remaining stable at New Trier High School through 2016-17.
After 2016-17, enrollment at New Trier will decline for about seven years, Kasarda predicted.
He offers three sets of projections every two years, including numbers that anticipate higher-than-average or lower-than-average results in each demographic category, Crawford said.